I’m a firm believer that if know some of the more important statistics about the game of blackjack, it can help you better understand the fundamentals of winning blackjack strategies.
However, I also understand that most folks find statistics boring; therefore, I prepared the following fun quiz, which I hope you will find entertaining as well as informative.
1. Ignoring ties, the percentage of hands that you can expect to win when you play blackjack is about:
a. 45 percent
b. 48 percent
c. 50 percent
Answer: b. When you ignore the 9 percent of the hands that tie, you can expect to win 48 percent of the hands dealt to you, and lose 52 percent. Notice that you will lose significantly more hands than you win. So how do you win money playing blackjack? For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is slightly greater than a single betting unit because the latter are sometimes hands where you get a blackjack and are paid at 3-2, or you double down and win double the amount of your bet. Losing hands, on the other hand, often lose only a single betting unit. The result is that monetarily you will be close to, but not quite even when you play (this assumes that you use the basic playing strategy for all your hands). If you want to go a step further and win much more money on winning hands compared to the amount you will lose on losing hands, so that overall you show a gain, then youâ??ve got to learn card counting.
2. If you are dealt three consecutive hands, what is the chance that they will all lose, excluding ties?
a. 1 percent
b. 14 percent
c. 30 percent
Answer: b. You have about a 14 percent chance of losing three hands in a row when you play blackjack. Surprised? Most players probably guess 1 percent because they figure the chance of this happening is very low. Well it isnâ??t, so donâ??t panic and abandon the basic playing strategy when it happens.
3. How frequently does a player get a blackjack?
a. Once every 15 hands
b. Once every 21 hands
c. Once every 30 hands
Answer: b. The game is 21 and you can expect to get a blackjack once in every 21 hands. This brings me to the point why I harp that you should never play any blackjack game that pays 6-5, instead of 3-2, for a winning blackjack. Suppose you play two hoursâ?? worth of blackjack on one of the heavily advertised, $10 minimum, 6-5 single deck games. Letâ??s assume you are dealt 100 hands per hour, so over the course of two hours you played 200 hands of blackjack. Getting a blackjack once every 21 hands means that you should theoretically have gotten about 10 blackjacks. Sometimes youâ??ll get more blackjacks in two hours of play, sometimes less, but on average youâ??ll get 10. Each of those blackjack hands cost you $3 on a 6-5 game (the difference between getting paid 3-2 vs. 6-5, or $12 instead of $15, for your $10 wager). So you forked over $30 to the casino for the privilege of playing a single-deck game (yeah, right). Save your money and avoid playing any 6-5 single- or multi-deck games.
4. How frequently does a basic strategy player bust?
a. Once every six hands
b. Once every eight hands
c. Once every ten hands
Answer. a. A basic strategy player can expect to bust about 16 percent of the time or once every six hands. When a player busts, he always loses. Not so with the dealer (see next question).
5. How frequently does the dealer bust?
a. One time out of every seven hands
b. Two times out of every seven hands
c. Three times out of every seven hands.
Answer: b. The dealer busts about 28 percent of the time, or about two times out of every seven hands. Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because players who act first and bust automatically lose (this is how the house has a built-in edge in blackjack). The 28 percent is an average over all possible dealer upcards. In fact, the dealer will bust significantly more times when she shows a 2-6 upcard (about 42 percent with a 5 or 6 upcard), and much less with a 7 through Ace upcard (with an Ace, itâ??s only 17 percent after checking for a natural). Because the dealerâ??s chance of busting is higher when she shows a small upcard, you should not risk busting a 12-16 stiff hand and should always stand (with two exceptions – itâ??s slightly better to hit a 12 against a dealerâ??s 2 or 3). However, when the dealer shows a strong upcard from 7 through Ace and has a much lower risk of busting, you should be more aggressive and hit your stiff hands until your hand totals 17 or more (even if it means you risk busting).
6. The dealer has an Ace upcard. What is the chance she has a 10 in the hole for blackjack?
a. 15 percent
b. 24 percent
c. 31 percent
Answer: c. The dealer will have a ten four times out of 13, or roughly 31 percent of the time. The remaining 9 out of 13, or 69 percent of the time, the dealer wonâ??t have a 10 in the hole. When you make the insurance bet, you are betting that the dealer has a ten in the hole when she shows an Ace. Assume you make a $10 insurance wager. Four times youâ??ll win $20 on the insurance bet (2 to 1 payoff odds) for a total win of $80. The other nine times you will lose $10 on your insurance bet for a total loss of $90. In other words, you lost more than you won. Therefore, itâ??s wise to never make the insurance bet.
So how did you do on the questions? It really doesnâ??t matter how many you got right or wrong, but whether or not I motivated you to play better … and I hope I did.
Author Sidebar: Henry Tamburin, Ph.D. is the author of the Ultimate Guide to Blackjack (http://blog.888casino.com/casino-guides/blackjack), editor of the Blackjack Insider e-Newsletter (www.bjinsider.com), lead instructor for the Golden Touch Blackjack course, and host of smartgaming.com. For a free three-month subscription to his blackjack newsletter, go to www.bjinsider.com/freetrial. To receive his free Casino Gambling Catalog, call 1-888-353-3234 or visit www.smartgaming.com.
